January 2027 price cap forecasts: what they mean for businesses
Household energy is back in the headlines. The Ofgem price cap rose 3.6% on 1 October 2026 to £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household, and forecasts now point to a much bigger increase on 1 January 2027.
Martin Lewis of MoneySavingExpert has warned that the January cap is predicted to rise significantly, citing forecasts from suppliers including EDF and E.ON of around 24% at the time of his update. Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight's latest forecast, published on 30 September 2026, puts the rise at around 16%, taking the typical household cap to about £1,999 a year — which would be the largest rise since January 2023. These are forecasts, not confirmed figures; Ofgem announces the actual January cap in late November.
Why does this matter for a business? The price cap applies to domestic standard tariffs only. Business electricity and gas contracts are not covered by it, so a rise in the household cap does not automatically change what your business pays. But both are shaped by the same thing: wholesale gas and electricity prices. The forecasts are rising because wholesale prices have risen, and that same market drives the rates suppliers offer businesses when contracts are renewed or agreed.
Businesses on a fixed contract keep their agreed rates until the contract ends. Businesses on variable, out-of-contract or deemed rates are more exposed to market movements, as suppliers can change those rates. Deemed and out-of-contract rates are often higher than a negotiated contract.
What can you do now? Find your latest bill and check your contract end date and rate type. If your contract ends in the next six to twelve months, it may be worth reviewing your options early rather than waiting. Every business's situation and attitude to risk is different, and fixing is not always the right answer — but knowing where you stand puts you in control.
UTIVO can review your current bill and explain the contract options available from a range of suppliers in plain English. Start your 30-second quote to begin.
Sources: MoneySavingExpert (Martin Lewis), Cornwall Insight press release 30 September 2026, Ofgem. Figures are forecasts and may change.